Thursday, April 14, 2005

British Bookies Favor Arinze, Lustiger and Ratzinger

Greetings Pope Blog readers. The following is pure speculation, so please take it with a grain of salt.

AFP has released an article detailing British bookies' current odds of papabili (see it here via Yahoo! News). The top three candidates (averaged from different bookies) are Arinze, Ratzinger and Lustiger. Althought I didn't list Ratzinger as papabile in my article (I consider him a grand elector instead), one reader made some good points on why he may in fact be electable anyway (check the comments).

It's been heard in the rumor mill that Ratzinger has already secured 50 votes. Meanwhile both he and Lustiger are 78. In my own not-so-humble opinion, in this specific conclave, old age may increase a cardinal's electibility, after a celebrated but long papacy of Pope John Paul II. Arinze is 72, so he would seem to fit that pattern. What do yah'll think?

Update 7:12 PM: Jimbo has informed Boney that this post is "trashy." Again, please take this "trashy" post with a grain of salt (and a sense of humor!). For the record, The Pope Blog is of the opinion that the next pope will be chosen by (gasp!) the cardinals themselves, with the influence of the Holy Spirit*--not bookmakers or the media :)

*Thanks for the correction, Thomas

25 comments:

Thomas Hurley said...

Um, I think the next Pope will be chosen by the cardinals, with the influence of the Holy Spirit, not directly by the Holy Spirit. The practical difference for us being that the cardinals could theoretically make a bad choice, while presumably the Holy Spirit would not. :-) I agree that data from bookies is not very meaningful. It is still entertaining though!

Anyway, I was the first of a couple commenters on your original papabile thread who thought Ratzinger should have been on your list, and I suppose maybe I should be taking all the "buzz" about him as some sort of confirmation of my opinion, but I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of buzz like this. I certainly think Ratzinger would have to be included on any list of papabile now, but I still think it is more likely that he will not be elected. I doubt that there is solid information behind the rumors that he has the support of 50 cardinals. It's not that I don't believe he could have the support of that many cardinals--for all I know maybe he does--but I don't think anyone would really know. I doubt very much that even the most informed of Vatican insiders would be able to obtain any reliable information establishing that at this point.

Anonymous said...

The interesting thing about the Italian Newspapers is that they are always running for breaking news... with a reason.

In any case these "article on Ratzinger's 50 votes" will bring a reaction on the side of those cardinals that do not see Ratzinger as the next Pope. Most likely they will unite around one candidate and try to reach more than 50 votes.

In my opinion the likelyhood that Ratzinger is the new Pope decreases with the Corriere della Sera article. The journalist that wrote it or the cardinal that inspired it probably knew that this would be the reaction.

John said...

The amusing thing is that Boney is not too far off the mark. There's a reason, after all, why futures markets are monitored by intelligence agencies; they've often been very good at predicting events. This isn't really all that trashy, or that pointless (though, given the unique dynamics of the Conclave, the utility does decrease by a bit).

Mr. Hurley is right in one respect: The choice is supposed to be inspired by the Holy Spirit, not made by the Holy Spirit. The difference is, ahem, critical. Otherwise, it would indicate that God has a very disturbed sense of humor, given some of the knaves who held the throne of St. Peter during the Renaissance.

Andy H said...

Yes, I acknowledge he is right. I was being a bit, ermm, ornery/exaggeratory in my language. Blogging does that to me for some odd reason.

Anonymous said...

I am happy that these three cardinals are the favourites as I do not think any of them would make a good Pope. This practically counts them out ... 'He who enters the Conclave a Pope ...' (you know the rest!)

Sr. Lorraine said...

I think that Lustiger will be the next Pope.

Anonymous said...

Lustiger ... he would definitely count as De Gloria Olivae

The Voice said...

Boney - I only wish El Salvador's Archbishop Arnuflo Romero was still alive for consideration. My sincere hope is that the Holy Spirit - via the Cardinals - sees fit to bless Cardinal Oscar Andrés Rodríguez with the honor becooming our next Pope.

ps: This is a wonderful site and I appreciate all that you have posted including this blog about the Papible. It is not "trashy" at all. Your commitment is evident and I truly appreciate all your efforts. Keep up the good work.

ZanniPolo said...

Trust us Brits to open a book on the matter!

bombsoverbaghdad said...

I hope the next Pope is conservative. But I also hope that he will encourage the latin american bishops to do something other than pray about the horrible economic inequality in that region.

net said...

oh i find this all to be so very fascinating...wouldn't mind at all if Ratzinger was chosen, however, it's only through recent events I know more of him, and I'm sure the cardinals have their own agenda and who they think will fit the bill of pope long before any of us got to speculating...hope we know soon.

Anonymous said...

maybe a stupid question but under canon law can they elect a Pope who is 80 years or over? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Canon law is quite clear on the matter. There are no age restrictions on the Pope. He doesn't have to be one of the Cardinal Electors, and doesn't even have to be a Cardinal. Any Catholic male will do. If he is not a Bishop at the time of his election, he must be consecrated one before he can take office.

Anonymous said...

To answer your question; Those Cardinals that are 80 and over aren't aloud to vote therefore not elligible for the papacy.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, the last post is completely wrong! If a Cardinal is over 80 he cannot vote as he is too old to be a member of the College of Electors. But ALL MALE CATHOLICS of ANY AGE are eligible to be elected! Please see Universi Dominici Gregis for clarification of this as it is incredibly important.

Anonymous said...

The next Pope of the Holy Church will be Jean-Marie Cardinal Lustiger, Archbishop Emeritus of Paris and one of John Paul's right hands. At 78, he's the perfect age for a transitional pope and, unlike Ratzinger, won't have a loyal opposition waiting for him at the Conclave. Once Ratzinger can't get to two-thirds, the College will turn to Lustiger.

The election of Lustiger will fulfill the prophecies of Malachy and others concerning the next pope. Cardinal Lustiger is The Glory of the Olive --- a living testament to the work of Christ in God's original people, the Jews. His papal name will likely be Benedict or Gregory or Leo --- not as sure about that though.

As those who follow ancient prophecy well know, this coming pope is either the final or penultimate pope before Judgment. This should not surprise anyone, as the aggragate of all ancient prophecy suggests the return of Christ in the next few decades. I am hopeful that as the new pope, Lustiger is able to guide the Church into the ever-troubled wildnerness as we await God to make all things right.

Anonymous said...

The supposed papal prophecy of St. Malachy wasn't by St. Malachy at all. It was a renaissance fraud. See Sandra Miesel's excellent post here.

Anonymous said...

Going out on a limb...the next Pope will be the Cardinal from England, cannot think of his name at the moment, and may take the name of Peter.

Michael J.W. Stickings said...

Sorry, I already posted this reply elsewhere on your site, but here goes. I think Tettamanzi's the man. I make my case here:

www.the-reaction.blogspot.com

Thanks for the great site.

Dave R. said...

Who can predict where the Spirit will lead the cardinal electors? Yet it seems reasonable to guess that an early or a late decision will result in the election of a follower of John Paul II. If the electors overwhelmingly want a JPII follower, they will decide on one quickly. On the other hand, if there is a slim majority for a JPII follower, they will hang on until the simple majority rule kicks in. On the other other hand, if a JPII follower is not in the cards (pendulum effect), then this will become obvious in the middle distance, and the cardinals will opt for some other. On the fourth other hand, who can predict where the Spirit will lead?

Jimbo said...

Just to clarify, an absolute majority is needed, not a simple majority. I am stunned at how often the media report this incorrectly.

wala talagae said...

joseph ratzinger of germany, now benedict xvi, has juz been chosen pope.

habemus papam!

Anonymous said...

Thank goodness for Ratzinger!! I think many people were hoping for a more liberal choice so they could feel better about their life decisions. Maybe they were wanting someone to rewrite the Bible. However, the Bible is a done deal. Once it says something is wrong, it's always wrong, no matter who the Pope is or how many people wish it was otherwise. Ratzinger will stick with the Bible and not be swayed.

dave r. said...

Dear Anonomous, it appears you have the new pope mixed up with Jerry Falwell or some other Bible-thumper such as that. Let's just pray that Ratzinger himself doen't suffer under the the same sort of confusion.

ROCKTOSALVATION said...

now that Benidict is pope, anyone believe Lustiger can still be next pope?