The election of a new pope is one of the most consequential events in global Christian life, and speculation about who might follow Pope Francis has intensified on the eve of tomorrow’s conclave.
While no one can predict the outcome of a conclave with certainty—remember the famed Vatican adage “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal”—it is possible to evaluate which cardinals have emerged as strong contenders.
Let’s run through a dozen cardinals who are widely discussed in ecclesiastical circles as papabile, and sort them into three tiers based on “conventional wisdom.”
Tier 1: Leading Contenders
1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Age: 70
Current Role: Vatican Secretary of State
Theological Orientation: Progressive-Moderate
Why He’s a Contender:
Parolin is one of the most powerful figures in the Vatican and the closest thing to a papal "prime minister." His diplomatic expertise, experience with global Church affairs, and moderation make him an appealing unifying figure. He is arguable neither too progressive for conservatives nor too conservative for progressives, making him a palatable consensus choice.
Challenges:
Some may view him as too institutional or bureaucratic. He lacks a strong pastoral profile compared to other candidates. Additionally, Parolin’s association with the controversial Vatican-China deal may sink his chances.
2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Age: 67
Current Role: Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization
Theological Orientation: Progressive-Moderate
Why He’s a Contender:
Seen as the most prominent Asian cardinal in the Church today, Tagle is charismatic, media-savvy, and a favorite of Pope Francis. His background reflects the growing importance of the Global South in the Church, and his communication style often resonates with both clergy and laity.
Challenges:
His progressive leanings may concern more conservative electors. He also lacks experience as a Vatican administrator compared to others.
3. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
Age: 69
Current Role: Archbishop of Bologna, President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
Theological Orientation: Progressive
Why He’s a Contender:
Zuppi is viewed as close to Pope Francis in vision and tone. He’s deeply involved in peace mediation efforts and is considered pastoral, inclusive, and forward-thinking. His leadership within the Italian Church gives him strong backing among European cardinals.
Challenges:
Some conservatives may worry about his progressive social stance, and his high profile might work against him in a secretive conclave. Among the “top tier” candidates, Zuppi may concern the conservatives the most.
4. Cardinal Robert Prevost (United States / Vatican)
Age: 69
Current Role: Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops
Theological Orientation: Moderate-Progressive
Why He’s a Contender:
A U.S.-born missionary with deep roots in Latin America, Prevost now oversees global bishop appointments—one of the most powerful roles in the Curia. Closely aligned with Pope Francis, he reflects a pastoral, globally minded Church. His bilingual and cross-cultural background offers appeal across continents.
Challenges:
Still relatively new as a cardinal and not widely known outside Vatican circles.
Tier 2: Serious Possibilities
5. Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France)
Age: 65
Current Role: Archbishop of Marseille
Theological Orientation: Moderate
Why He’s a Contender:
Aveline is a relatively new cardinal but highly regarded in Europe and Latin America. He’s known for interreligious dialogue and immigration advocacy. His profile rose sharply after hosting Pope Francis in Marseille in 2023.
Challenges:
Not yet well known globally, and may be seen as lacking Vatican administrative experience.
6. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)
Age: 72
Current Role: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
Theological Orientation: Conservative
Why He’s a Contender:
A canon lawyer and theological scholar, Erdő is a leading intellectual and a strong voice in the European episcopate. He appeals to traditionalists seeking continuity with Benedict XVI.
Challenges:
His conservative stance and perceived closeness to Hungary’s political leadership may raise concerns among progressives. Nevertheless, Erdő is clearly the conservative favorite heading into the conclave.
7. Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith (Sri Lanka)
Age: 77
Current Role: Archbishop of Colombo
Theological Orientation: Conservative
Why He’s a Contender:
Ranjith is a staunch defender of traditional liturgy and orthodoxy. His leadership after the 2019 Easter bombings in Sri Lanka drew praise. He appeals to those desiring a return to stronger discipline and clear moral teaching.
Challenges:
His rigid style and theological conservatism might limit broader support.
Tier 3: Longshots but Notable Figures
8. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri (Argentina)
Age: 81 (now ineligible to vote)
Current Role: Prefect Emeritus, Congregation for Eastern Churches
Theological Orientation: Conservative-Moderate
Why He’s Included:
Though over the voting age, Sandri remains a key player in Latin American Church affairs and has historically been considered papabile. His long curial service makes him an influential background figure.
9. Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea)
Age: 79
Current Role: Prefect Emeritus, Congregation for Divine Worship
Theological Orientation: Strongly Conservative
Why He’s a Contender:
Sarah has a devoted following among traditionalists. His focus on silence, prayer, and liturgical purity appeals to conservative Catholics longing for a "Benedict-style" pope.
Challenges:
His uncompromising positions and criticism of parts of the Francis papacy likely limit electability.
10. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Age: 65
Current Role: Archbishop of Kinshasa
Theological Orientation: Conservative
Why He’s a Contender:
Ambongo is one of the most prominent African voices in the Church, known for environmental advocacy and social justice. His blend of pastoral energy and theological depth appeals across regional blocs.
Challenges:
Less familiar to Western media and curial electors, though his influence is growing.
11. Cardinal Gérald Lacroix (Canada)
Age: 67
Current Role: Archbishop of Quebec
Theological Orientation: Moderate
Why He’s a Contender:
Lacroix is a calm, steady figure with both missionary and administrative experience. He reflects Francis's priorities without being polarizing.
Challenges:
Canada's small Catholic population and his relatively low profile could limit his momentum.
12. Cardinal Carlos Aguiar Retes (Mexico)
Age: 74
Current Role: Archbishop of Mexico City
Theological Orientation: Moderate-Progressive
Why He’s a Contender:
Aguiar Retes is a senior Latin American cardinal close to Pope Francis, and a key figure in synodality and evangelization.
Challenges:
His home country's complex political and ecclesial landscape might deter some voters.
What’s Next?
Heading into 2025’s conclave, Cardinals Parolin, Tagle, Zuppi, and Prevost form the leading four candidates, though the College of Cardinals may ultimately look to other regions or temperaments when the time comes; there is also a substantial likelihood that the conclave will choose a “compromise” candidate that is palatable to cardinals with differing theological philosophies.
The next pope will inherit a global Church facing immense challenges and deep divisions—but also tremendous opportunities for renewal, evangelization, and unity.
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